Get Ready for the World of Driverless, Electric, Shared Cars

Get Ready for the World of Driverless, Electric, Shared Cars

It’s been a good year for electric cars.Tesla’s Model 3 has logged almost 400,000 preorders, GM is ramping up production of its 200-mile range Chevy Bolt, battery costs are plunging, and sales in the EU, China, and U.S. markets are up sharply from this time last year. And yet, some of the most respected analysts in government and the private sector have gone on record stating that EVs are too expensive and impractical to compete with the standard automobile—not just today, but for decades to come.

Exxon Mobil Corp., the Massachusetts Insitute of Technology, and the U.S. Department of Energy all agree that electric vehicles will remain a fringe technology for decades—until at least 2040. According to ExxonMobil’s crystal ball, electric cars will only comprise about 3 percent of the global automotive fleet by 2040. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is even more skeptical than Exxon Mobil, projecting that 2 percent of cars will be electric 25 years from now. MIT’s Sloan Automotive Laboratory only sees about 17 percent of new vehicles as plug-in EVs by 2050.

They’re wrong—for many reasons big and small. It’s easy to quibble with estimates of how fast battery prices will decline; or argue that they misunderstand the consumer appeal of electric cars. There is also a strong argument that manufacturers should be counting services rather than vehicles sold; and the role of policies pushing electric vehicles isn’t fully included in these numbers. (Case in point: Media reports say Norway is on the verge of announcing that it will phase out fossil fuel–powered cars by 2025.)